Economic and Fiscal Analysis

Improving the economic and fiscal analysis techniques used by policy makers, budget officials, and tax administrators, can greatly enhance a country’s fiscal policy efforts and the implementation of fiscal policies in a number of ways. The International Studies Program specializes in providing technical assistance and training in the areas of revenue forecasting and micro-simulation analysis. Fiscal analysis tools are also frequently an intergral part of tax administration reforms.

Modern revenue forecasting models employ objective, statistical techniques to project government revenue collections for future months or years. Accurate revenue projections enhance the stability of the budget process and allow the government to prioritize expenditure programs and achieve operational efficiency.

In addition, micro-simulation models provide valuable insights into the static and dynamic impacts of proposed changes to the tax structure. Microsimulation models are developed using taxpayer data and allow tax experts to engage in a numerical analysis of taxpayer returns. Expert training in the proper application of these forecasting and simulation techniques is crucial as advances in computer technology have placed these techniques within the reach of most Budget Departments, Revenue Services and Finance Ministries in developing and transitional economies.