ISP Working Paper Number 07-10

Using Human Capital Theory to Establish a Potential Income Tax

Dagney Faulk, Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, and Sally Wallace, June 2007

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Abstract:

There are good arguments for an individual income tax on “potential income”, but the drawback to such a tax is the significant administrative concern regarding the implementation of the tax. This paper argues that human capital theory provides a widely accepted and straightforward method to estimate “potential income” using observed characteristics of individuals, and operationalizes this approach using data for the U.S.A. The paper also suggests that a “potential income tax” is very similar to a “presumptive income tax.” The paper concludes by reviewing some significant problems with the implementation of a potential/presumptive income tax.